MLB Moneyline Edge Finder:
Methodology & Historical Picks

Methodology

This model aims to find valuable MLB underdog moneylines by generating its own moneylines for every game each day and comparing those against the lines
offered by DraftKings, in real time. It uses the two teams run differentials over the last five games, and the dollar value of a singular run, to construct its own
moneyline for each game. Underdogs which have at least +10pts of value are returned - meaning the line offered on DraftKings is at least 10pts above the generated
moneyline, suggesting the line has good value. The model tends to perform better picking "small upsets" than "large upsets", hence the Rating System outlined below.

Pick Rating System

⭐⭐⭐: Model underdog moneyline less than +126, and DraftKings underdog moneyline less than +151
⭐⭐: Model underdog moneyline less than +126, and DraftKings underdog moneyline less than +176
⭐: Model underdog moneyline less than +176, and DraftKings underdog moneyline less than +201